Kaulkin Ginsberg Index
The Kaulkin Ginsberg Index (KGI) is a composite of seven macroeconomic factors that directly impact the accounts receivable management (ARM) industry. The Index provides an overview of the economic environment in which ARM companies do business without addressing the financial or operational results of companies in the industry.
Kaulkin Ginsberg’s Debt Collection Industry Index Reflects Continued Declines; Modest Improvement Predicted
May 28, 2009: Rockville, MD – The Kaulkin Ginsberg Index (KGI), the leading indicator of economic conditions affecting the accounts receivables management (ARM) industry, continued to deteriorate in March but validated the our projections of a deceleration in the trend. The updated March figure for the KGI shows the index fell 5.5 points from February to 1160.0 in March. This was a decline of 0.5%, down from the 3.1% drop the month prior, and March’s total represents a year-over-year decline of 6.8% from March of 2008.
Although March 2009 was a continuation of the downward trend in collectability that’s been seen over the course of the past two years, the downward momentum in March decelerated from the declines seen during previous months.
Of the seven contributing economic variables within the index, the March decline was driven primarily by continued deterioration in the labor market that led to higher unemployment and increased bankruptcy filings for the month. Nationally unemployment increased 4.9% from February to March, while outstanding consumer credit declined by 0.5% or roughly $13 billion for the period. A moderating factor was the stabilizing of values for the market capitalization of accounts receivable management (ARM) companies.
Preliminary projections for the month of April show the KGI improving, increasing 23.5 points to 1183.5 from the March period. If maintained, the April figure would represent a year-over-year decline of 8.3% from April 2008. The April projections for the KGI show the deceleration in decline noted from March may be a precursor to improved collectability towards the latter part of 2009.
Index Variables |
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Variable |
March 2009* |
Monthly Change |
Quarterly Change* |
Monthly Effect* |
Unemployment Rate |
8.5% |
+4.9% |
+12.5% |
Down |
Federal Funds Rate |
0.18% |
-18.2% |
+37.5% |
Down |
Charge-off Rate** |
2.04% |
N/A |
+7.9% |
Up |
Outstanding Consumer Credit |
$2.551(T) |
-0.5% |
+0.1% |
Down |
Total Market Cap of ARM Stocks |
$769(M) |
+28.2% |
-35.8% |
Up |
Bankruptcy Filings |
323,498 |
+12.2% |
-2.6% |
Down |
Consumer Price Index |
212.7 |
-0.1% |
+1.0% |
Down |
* See “How is the KGI Calculated,” http://www.kaulkin.com/go/kgi-methodology
** Revisions will be made available upon release of fourth quarter results.
Market Capitalization Of Public ARM Companies |
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Companies |
Month-End Price |
Mar-09 Cap ($M) |
Monthly Change |
Quarterly Change |
AACC |
$5.31 |
$198 |
+58.5% |
-34.2% |
ASFI |
$2.45 |
$33 |
+50.3% |
-40.5% |
PRAA |
$26.84 |
$416 |
+19.0% |
-33.3% |
ECPG |
$4.53 |
$101 |
+14.1% |
-45.0% |
FCFC |
$1.85 |
$21 |
+35.0% |
-31.8% |
For more information, contact Dimitri Michaud, Analyst, at 240-499-3840.